GEORGIA: Rally against Electoral Fraud & more – 7th Nov 2024

Gamarjobat from Gracia! This is the Rorshok Georgia Update from the 7th of November twenty twenty-four. A quick summary of what's going down in Georgia.

On Monday, the 4th, opposition parties held a rally in front of the Parliament, where they presented their action plan in response to what they considered fraudulent elections. They are calling for new parliamentary elections because they do not recognize the legitimacy of the election conducted on the 26th of October. Protests are planned every day until their demands are met, initially in Tbilisi and later across the country. The opposition will also continue to gather evidence of systemic fraud and share it with Western colleagues and institutions to deny the new parliament international recognition.

The opposition parties present at the rally were the United National Movement or Natsebi, the Coalition for Change - Gvramia, Melia, Girchi, Droa or Tsvlilebebistvis, and the Coalition Strong Georgia or Dzlieri, which includes Lelo. The only opposition party that was not present in an official capacity at the rally was Gakharia for Georgia or Sakartvelostvis.

Speaking about Gakharia’s party, Ana Buchukuri, one of the leaders of Sakartvelostvis, stated that although her party members do not appear on stage or participate in briefings alongside the three other opposition parties, they maintain technical communications with the pro-Western parties and cooperate fully on gathering and sharing evidence of election fraud. She said that they have their own independent process and action plan. Buchukuri says that while their party members and voters are participating in peaceful demonstrations, they are not the ones organizing them.

One person who did attend the rally was Greta Thunberg, the Swedish climate activist and Time's Person of the Year, who arrived in Tbilisi to support the demonstrations. In a brief statement to the press, Thunberg said that she wanted to stand in solidarity with the people who had taken to the streets to protest the authoritarian developments occurring in the country.

Next up, HarrisX, an international research company that conducted exit polls on the day of the parliamentary elections, shared its analysis. They surveyed over twelve thousand people and said that the discrepancy between their results and those reported by the Election Administration of Georgia was statistically unexplainable. Specifically, this anomaly has occurred in twenty-seven districts, which account for eight percent of the total votes. One example of huge discrepancy was in the city of Marneuli, where HarrisX's exit polls showed the Georgian Dream or Otsneba receiving 40% of the votes, while the official results were closer to 80%.

While on the subject of exit polls, a similar statement was made by Edison Research, which had been conducting election surveys for months leading up to the elections, as well as exit polls on election day. They say that the thirteen-point difference between their exit poll results and the official results cannot be explained by standard statistical variation and suggest it points to vote manipulation, particularly in districts where Otsneba won by a large majority.

On Thursday, the 31st of October, the international NGO Reporters Without Borders revealed that Alexander Malkovich, the creator of a Russian propaganda network operating in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, was in Tbilisi during the elections.

Malkovich is wanted by both Ukrainian and U.S. authorities, with a ten-million-dollar reward for information leading to his location. He has strong ties to Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the notorious Russian mercenary group Wagner.

He admitted that he went to Georgia to observe the election process with authorization from the Election Administration of Georgia, despite Malkovich’s violation of Georgia’s law on occupation, which bars entry to individuals who have visited Georgia's separatist regions through other countries.

On Monday, the 4th, the opposition and some NGOs who argue that the secrecy of the vote was violated during the recent elections secured a small victory. The judge of the first-instance court in Tetritskaro, a town south of Tbilisi, ruled in favor of the Georgian Young Lawyers Association (or GYLA), which said that the mark voters made to indicate their preferred candidate was visible from the other side of the ballot paper, compromising the secrecy of the election. As a result, the judge annulled the election results for thirty districts under his jurisdiction.

The GYLA now seeks to cancel the results for the almost 2,300 electronic polling stations, where this voting issue also happened. These stations account for nearly 90% of voters.

Unfortunately, this is the organization’s only case in twenty-four that the court ruled in its favor. The Election Administration said it will fight this decision in the Court of Appeals.

In other news, on Friday, the 1st, Mamuka Mdinaradze, the Executive Secretary of Otsneba, addressed the issue of the Anti-LGBT Law. Along with Russian Law, European leaders often point to this law, officially known as the Law for the Protection of Family Values and Minors, as being incompatible with EU standards. Mdinaradze said that this law would not be repealed, even if it meant that Georgia would take a few extra years to join the European Union. He argued that conservative forces in Europe need to wake up for traditional and Christian values to regain prominence. He said that once this shift occurs, no one will demand the cancellation of the Anti-LGBT law in exchange for EU membership.

On Tuesday the 5th and Wednesday the 6th, a new round of discussions took place between Georgia and Russia in the Geneva International Discussions, which were established after the two thousand eight Georgian-Russian war to address the issues of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Following the meeting, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement, expressing expectations for practical steps from the Georgian side, such as a commitment to the non-use of force and the initiation of the border demarcation process with separatist regions. The Russian side emphasized that this is especially important now, as the Georgian government itself has spoken about external forces attempting to open a second front in the region. Otsneba has been actively promoting this narrative over the past year. According to this conspiracy theory, Western powers want an escalation of conflict in the Caucasus, so that Russia would have to commit troops it currently has in Ukraine.

Despite political uncertainty, one sector of Georgia's economy is performing exceptionally well. Galt and Taggart, The Georgian Investment Bank, predicts that tourism will generate $4.4 billion dollars by the end of twenty twenty-four, marking a 7% increase from last year and setting a new record. The main drivers of the industry include Russia, contributing with $295 million; the EU with $210 million; and Israel with $147 million.

However, concerns have emerged due to the current tensions between the EU and Georgia. If the situation escalates and the EU suspends visa-free travel for Georgians, it could reduce the number of flights between Georgia and European countries, which would negatively impact tourism numbers.

In some cultural news, Winecast, a festival dedicated to wine and cinema, will take place from Friday the 8th to Sunday the 10th. The first day’s events will be held in Tbilisi at the Wine Museum. Attendees will be able to enjoy classic Georgian films, wine and cheese tastings, and film masterclasses. On the second and third days, the festival will move to Tsinandali, a village in the eastern Georgian region of Kakheti. There, the same events will take place at the house-museum of 19th-century Georgian aristocrat and poet Alexander Chavchavadze.

And to wrap up this edition, on Saturday, the 9th, the Tallinn's international film festival will host the premiere of Irine Jordania's movie Air Blue Silk. The film will be part of the program Flowers Are Not Silent: Independent Voices from Georgia, which highlights the Georgian film industry. The story follows two characters: a woman grieving the death of an estranged family member and a young man who has cut himself off from the world, communicating only with an AI. Both are hiding from reality, struggling to confront their pain and reconnect with others.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

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Nakhvamdis!